Russia pursuing at least three operational-level efforts in Ukraine - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in a new report, according to Ukrinform.

ISW analysts believe that Ukrainian forces will increasingly struggle to defend against these Russian efforts the longer Ukraine lacks further U.S. military assistance.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on April 13 that the situation in eastern Ukraine has significantly worsened in recent days and that Russian forces are conducting mechanized attacks in the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Pokrovsk (west of Avdiivka) directions.

The report notes that the Russian efforts in the Lyman, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk directions each pursue operationally significant objectives, but these operations are not mutually supporting, and Russian forces still seem to be alternating emphasis among the different operational directions rather than leaning into all three at any given time.

ISW said that Ukrainian forces have successfully defended against prior Russian operational-level offensive efforts of this sort when they had the resources the U.S. is currently withholding, forcing these efforts to culminate before they could achieve operationally significant results.

Analysts say that Ukrainian forces currently struggle with significant shortages of both artillery shells and air defense means, both of which are critical components of their defense, and Russian forces are capitalizing on these shortages and improved weather conditions.

The Russian military command likely assesses that Ukrainian forces will be unable to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations due to delays in or the permanent end of U.S. military assistance.

"If the United States does not resume providing aid to Ukraine and Ukrainian forces continue to lack essential artillery and air defense munitions in particular, however, even badly-trained and poorly-equipped Russian troops might be able to conduct successful offensive operations," the ISW report said.

According to the institute's analysts, the occupiers are intensifying their efforts to capture Chasiv Yar. "The offensive effort to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances as the seizure of the town would likely allow Russian forces to launch subsequent offensive operations against the cities that form in effect a significant Ukrainian defensive belt in the Donetsk region," the report said.

Russian forces have long aimed to capture a group of major cities in the Donetsk region that include Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka.