Russia keeps violating OPEC+ agreements - research

That’s according to the latest report by the Center for Defense Reforms, a Ukrainian-based think tank, seen by Ukrinform.

“Specifically, the identified violations – though far from exhaustive – reveal that Russia has exceeded its production quota by no less than 2.57 million barrels per day (28%) on average during the first four months of 2024,” the report reads.

This amounts to an annual financial gain of $59 billion, based on the average oil price for September 2024, analysts note.

One of the methods employed by Russia to conceal data on oil exports involves manipulation of customs declaration records, the think tank underlines.

“The unreported volumes of Russian oil deliveries to China and India alone, for the period from January to April 2024, amount to an average of 1.07 million barrels per day, indicating that Russia exceeded its OPEC+ production quota by 11.9%,” the report says, adding that the overall scale of data concealment through this practice remains unknown.

To disguise these deliveries, Russian authorities “list zero value for certain contracts in the customs declarations”.

Over the first four months of 2024, Russia exported at least 789,000 barrels of oil per day more to China than officially reported, the report reads, noting that during the same period, exports to India exceeded official statistics by at least 280,000 barrels per day.

“Access to more recent data on Russian oil export declarations is unavailable, which may suggest that Russia is actively working to close sources of uncontrolled information leaks regarding its oil transactions,” the think tank assumes.

Another method of concealing export volumes involves “deceptive shipping practices” involving tankers carrying Russian oil.

“The maritime export masking measures employed by Russia have enabled the concealment of at least 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day from official statistics during the period from April to August 2024, specifically in the Black and Baltic Sea regions. This accounts for 16% of Russia’s production according to IEA or OPEC data and exceeds Russia’s OPEC+ quota by 16.7%,” the Center for Defense Reforms write.

Some investigators suggest that the volumes could surpass 2.6 million barrels per day.

The identified 28% surplus of actual deliveries over official figures constitutes only a fraction of the total concealed shipments, analysts stress.

“These figures underscore the success of Russia’s efforts to obscure its true production, leading not only to the capture of market share at the expense of other OPEC+ members, but also to a considerable underestimation of Russia’s economic potential by international analysts,” the report concludes.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, the European Union, together with its G7 partners, introduced a price cap for Russian oil transported by sea at $60 per barrel. Currently, Russia is trying to circumvent such a restriction by using a “shadow fleet” of tankers. Russia's use of the "shadow fleet" is a major factor in evading EU sanctions on maritime oil trade.