That’s according to Bild, referring to a classified document drawn up by the German Defense Ministry, Ukrinform reports.
"Escalation between NATO and Russia can take place as early as February. This is a drill scenario that describes step by step, month by month, how Putin will act and how NATO will defend. According to the scenario of the Bundeswehr, the escalation will come in just a few weeks. The hostilities will soon begin, and tens of thousands of German forces will be involved," writes Bild.
According to the scenario, Russia is launching a new wave of mobilization, conscripting another 200,000 men into the army in February 2024. Then, in spring, the Kremlin launches a large-scale offensive in Ukraine and, against the background of insufficient support for Kyiv from Western partners, defeats the Ukrainian Armed Forces by June 2024.
Further on, according to the document, clashes on ethnic grounds are to start in the Baltic States as Russia will launch large-scale military exercises, Zapad 2024 (West 2024) involving 50,000 forces in the western part of the Russian Federation and on Belarusian soil in September.
In October, Russia moves troops and medium-range missiles into Kaliningrad to attack the Suwalki Gap, which connects Kaliningrad to Belarus via Lithuania.
There, in December, immediately after the presidential election in the United States, border conflict and riots unfold in the country while Russia is trying to benefit off the potential paralysis of the American political system.
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In January 2025, Poland and the Baltic States convene a NATO Council and announce a threat coming from the Russian Federation, which in March is expected to deploy additional forces to the allied Belarus and toward the borders with the Baltic States.
In May 2025, NATO decides on credible deterrence measures to prevent a Russian attack on the Suwalki Gap.
On X Day, the NATO commander orders the deployment of 300,000 troops, including 30,000 Germans, to the eastern flank of the Alliance.
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Bild emphasizes that the scenario in question is the legend of NATO exercises scheduled to be held in the Baltic region for 2024.
The Bundeswehr told the newspaper that “looking at different scenarios, even extremely unlikely ones, is part of its military routine."
Photo: Bundeswehr
