ISW analyzes Putin's suggested figures on Russian army losses in Ukraine

According to a report on the ISW website, the Russian leader suggested that roughly 5,000 Russian personnel are killed in action in Ukraine each month, which further suggests that roughly 15,000 Russian personnel are wounded in action, assuming a standard three-to-one wounded-to-killed casualty ratio.

ISW analysts cannot confirm Putin's suggested casualty rate and his apparent inadvertent admission does not serve as a clear claim about Russian casualties in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk stated on May 2 that Russian forces suffer about 25,000 to 30,000 killed and wounded personnel per month.

In mid-January 2024, Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi reported, that Russia recruits around 30,000 personnel per month.

In April 2024, Ruslan Pukhov, the head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and a member of a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) civilian advisory board, similarly claimed that current Russian crypto-mobilization efforts are generating roughly 30,000 new personnel each month.

At the same time, ISW in its report notes that Russian officials are reportedly concerned about decreasing recruitment rates ahead of the expected Russian Summer 2024 offensive effort, and it is unclear if the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has maintained the roughly 30,000 recruitment rate it reportedly had in January and April of 2024.

In addition, in recent months, Russian forces have notably established a more sustainable force generation apparatus for ongoing offensive operations and have intensified efforts to establish operational- and strategic-level reserves.

According to analysts, the marginal amount of additional newly generated forces not immediately committed to the front as reinforcements has allowed Russian forces to gradually establish operational reserves.

In early May 2024, Pavlyuk stated that Russian forces intended to generate about 100,000 more personnel for use in offensive operations this June and July and 300,000 more personnel by the end of 2024.

“ISW continues to assess that likely poorly trained and equipped Russian operational- and strategic-level reserves are unlikely to be ready to act as a first-echelon penetration force or as a second-echelon exploitation force capable of conducting large-scale assaults in 2024 if Ukrainian forces have the wherewithal to resist them,” the report says.

As reported by Ukrinform, Russia's overall combat losses in Ukraine between February 24, 2022 and June 7, 2024 amounted to about 516,080 troops.