Russia can pose significant threat to NATO sooner than Western forecasts — ISW

According to Ukrinform, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated this in a report on their website.

Experts cite a German military document that reportedly describes how Russia is using covert attacks against German infrastructure to prepare for a potential future war between Russia and NATO, consistent with ISW's current assessments.

The document notes that Russia is intensifying covert attacks on key German infrastructure, likely in preparation for a larger-scale conflict, analysts at the Institute point out, referencing Western media reports from late 2025 and early January 2026.

The military document also examines Russian cyber operations and influence campaigns as preparation for military confrontation. It states that Germany expects Russia to initially target German energy and defense infrastructure, given Germany's role as a NATO hub for troop movement and support. It is forecast that after an open armed attack on NATO's eastern flank, Russia would consider Germany a priority target for long-range missile and drone strikes.

According to the assessment contained in the document, Russia will develop these capabilities and "strategic options" no later than 2029, even if the war in Ukraine continues unchanged, the summary notes.

"Russian covert attacks against German infrastructure are likely a line of effort within Russia's 'Phase Zero' campaign — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future," ISW experts say.

As Ukrinform previously reported, Russia is intensifying attacks on Germany's key infrastructure as part of a hybrid warfare campaign, which Berlin sees as potential preparation for a large-scale conflict.

Photo: AA