That is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as reported by Ukrinform.
ISW said that on July 22, the Russian State Duma passed a bill that allows citizens with unexpunged and active criminal records, including for crimes related to drug smuggling and organized crime, to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense during formal mobilization periods.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister and Russian MoD Main Military-Political Directorate Head Army General Viktor Goremykin stated that the July 22 bill will expand the number of Russians eligible for military service and facilitate Russian recruitment efforts for the war in Ukraine in 2026.
On July 21, Russia’s militarized internal security force, Rosgvardia, published proposed amendments to expand its civil defense regulations to protect Russian society from unspecified “dangers” during mobilization, martial law, and in wartime.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill in November 2025 that allows him to deploy reservists to combat areas without declaring mobilization, and ISW assessed at the time that the Kremlin would likely leverage this bill to conduct rolling partial reserve call-ups.
"The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to announce formal mobilization and potentially declare martial law in Russia in anticipation of civil unrest as mobilization remains highly unpopular within Russian society," the report said.
Read also: ISW: Russians fail in new attempts to advance in Sumy regionAccording to ISW analysts, mobilization remains a highly personal decision for Putin and ultimately depends on his own assessment of the battlefield situation and the stability of the Kremlin's grip on power. It remains unclear whether Putin will make such a decision in the near future or what his mobilization announcement would look like.
As reported by Ukrinform, President Volodymyr Zelensky said he does not rule out the possibility that Russian President Vladimir Putin could announce a mobilization after Russia's parliamentary elections.
